Where (and When) Will Yellowstone Erupt Next?

New research indicates it likely won’t blow today, but one region on Yellowstone’s northeastern side is likely to host liquid magma in the long term, possibly fueling future eruptions hundreds of thousands of years from now. Yellowstone’s melted magma lurks in four separate reservoirs within the crust of the caldera. The western reservoirs do not touch the deep mantle rocks that would heat them from below so they will likely start to cool and solidify. But to the northeast, mantle rocks are heating the magma trapped in the crust keeping them liquid and eruptable. Using measurements of earthquake waves and magnetotellurics (measurements of subterranean magma magnetic fields) researchers mapped four main hidden pockets of magma that together contain more liquid magma than was present during large, caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone in the past (2.8 MYA, 1.3 MYA and 640,000 years ago). These magma pockets rest as deep as about 6 or 7 miles below the surface, but only in the northeastern region of the caldera is the magma in touch with hot mantle rock that will keep the magma liquid in the long term. Despite the large volume of magma pooling below Yellowstone, the caldera isn’t likely to erupt anytime soon. The magma sits in pore spaces in solid rock, much like water in a sponge. The estimated fraction of magma filled pores is 20% or less, but only when more than 40% of pore spaces are filled can the magma link up, get mobile and start erupting. But that could change over tens of thousands of years as mantle rock warms the northeastern magma pools. Exactly how long that will take, or if it will happen before the mantle rocks in the northeastern region of Yellowstone lose contact with its magma reservoir, remains unknown. Condensed from a Live Science article by Stephanie Pappas
Gorge-ous Gathering – 2025 IAFI Membership Meeting

2025 IAFI Membership MeetingGorge-ous Gathering Celebrating the 30th anniversary of Ice Age Floods Institute The annual IAFI Membership Meeting is coming to the Columbia Gorge this May 2-3, 2025, and all our members and their guests are cordially invited to come experience some of the best and most interesting features the Gorge has to offer. There’ll be opportunities to explore storied Gorge wildflowers and native plants, geology and winery field trips, whitewater rafting, a membership meeting/dinner and a presentation by the ever-entertaining Nick Zenter.Check-in begins each day at 8:00 AM at the Columbia Gorge Discovery Center **CLICK HERE TO REGISTER** Friday, May 2nd Activities Friday, May 2nd, will be action packed with activities during the day. Choose between a guided Spring Wildflower Walk, a Journey Through Terroir field trip, an Unveiling the Gorge field trip, or opportunities (available every day) for full-day or half-day adventure whitewater raft trips on the Klickitat or White Salmon Rivers with Wet Planet Rafting, a local world-class rafting company. Spaces on the Friday activities will be limited, but if there is sufficient waitlist interest they may be repeated on Sunday, May 4, extending the celebration to a full 3 days. The evening will feature our members meeting and dinner, followed by an entertaining and informative presentation by the inimitable Nick Zenter exploring and geolocating J Harlan Bretz’s field notes. Note: The Columbia Gorge in May can be warm/cool, dry/wet, calm/windy, and some tours will involve roadside off/on the bus stops and short walks, so dress appropriately and wear comfortable walking shoes. Spring Wildflower Walk – On Friday, May 2nd, prepare to be captivated as Barbara Robinson, a renowned native plants expert, leads you on a spectacular Wildflower Walk through Tom McCall Preserve on the Rowena Plateau. Located in the transition zone between the moist, heavily-forested west side of the Cascades and the drier bunch grass prairies of the east, the easy Plateau Trail immerses you in a vibrant tapestry of springtime wildflowers that cover grasslands full of arrowleaf balsamroot, lupine, bachelor’s button, and other spectacular wildflowers blooming at your feet. You’ll meander through breathtaking panoramas of the Columbia River Gorge unfolding before you, imagining the raw power of nature that created the enigmatic mound-and-swale topography and kolk pond landforms sculpted by ancient forces of volcanic eruptions and Ice Age floods that flowed 200 feet above your head. You’ll meet Barbara at the Rowena Crest parking circle at 11:00 AM, Friday. May 2nd (Google Maps link). Spaces are limited so reserve your place today ($10 members/guests, $25 general public) for your chance to experience an unforgettable magical adventure on the Rowena Plateau. Remember to stay on marked trails, dress for probable strong winds, avoid poison oak, and that dogs are not permitted. Read more… Embark on a Vineyard/Winery “Journey Through Terroir” – Experience the magic of the Columbia Gorge Wine Region with renowned soil scientist and vineyard consultant, Alan Busacca. This exclusive bus tour takes you deep into the heart of this unique region, where dramatic landscapes and diverse microclimates create wines of extraordinary character. You’ll visit stunning vineyards, sample award-winning wines, and uncover the fascinating science behind their unique flavors. Learn how volcanic soils, extreme rainfall gradients, and powerful winds all contribute to the distinctive taste of each wine. From lush, forested hillsides to sun-drenched high-desert slopes, this is your chance to experience the incredible diversity of this “World of Wine in Forty Miles.” and taste the sensory adventure of the Columbia Gorge firsthand. May 2nd, 10:00 AM, limited to 22 seats. Reserve your place today!(Tour: $35 members/guests, $50 general public. Tasting Package: $20) Read more… Unveiling the Gorge field trip is now full – Use this link to add your name to the waiting list in case there are cancellations or another section of this field trip is added for Sunday. Unveiling the Gorge – The walls of the Columbia Gorge expose layer upon layer of similar appearing Columbia River Basalt. But exposed within those walls are features that tell unusual stories of geologic events, cultural history and inspire imaginative tales. On this field trip we’ll stop and discuss many of those features and their stories as we do a 50-mile bus loop through some of the most spectacular scenic vistas the Gorge has to offer. Maars, lahars, pillows, petroglyphs, even an exotic side trip, plus much more will expand your vision and tickle your imagination. Lunch at a scenic overlook (order a box lunch or bring your own) May 2nd, 10:00 AM, limited to 33 seats. Reserve your place today! ($35 members/guests, $50 general public) Read more… Whitewater Rafting Excitement Awaits! – For your adventurous spirit, experience the thrill of whitewater rafting on the iconic Wild & Scenic White Salmon or Klickitat Rivers. Enjoy half-day or full-day trips with experienced guides who ensure a safe and exciting journey for all skill levels. Navigate thrilling Class II-IV rapids, surrounded by breathtaking scenery. Glide through crystal-clear waters fed by the glaciers of Mt. Adams, surrounded by thick pine forests, steep canyons, and majestic basalt cliffs. Escape the crowds and immerse yourself in the true wilderness of the Pacific Northwest. Trips available daily through Wet Planet Rafting (Use code IAFI-2025 for a 10% discount off normal prices: White Salmon 1/2-day (4 hours, 8 miles) (7 hours, 15 miles)$84 Fri, $89 Sat-Sun, White Salmon full-day $155 Fri, $165 Sat-Sun, Klickitat full-day (7 hours, 11 miles) $185 Sat-Sun, riverside lunch included). Wet Planet provides all the gear except a bathing suit, but if you desire you can go commando under the wetsuit gear). Membership Gathering, Dinner and Special Presentation – The evening will begin with a guided native plants tour guided by Barbara Robinson around the Columbia Gorge Discovery Center grounds and an opportunity to visit the museum’s displays. Then we’ll gather in the auditorium for the membership meeting, followed by a buffet pasta dinner in the Discovery Center’s Basalt Rock Cafe. Reserve your meal now. Afterward we’ll return to the auditorium for the high point of the evening, the main presentation of the evening by the amazing Nick Zenter about his recent collaboration
Unveiling the Gorge Field Trip

The rock walls of the Columbia Gorge expose layer upon layer of similar appearing Columbia River Basalt. But exposed on those walls and within those layers are features that tell unusual stories of geologic events, cultural history and inspire imaginative tales to those who look with an inquisitive mind. On this field trip we’ll stop frequently to talk about many of those features and their stories, as we do a 50-mile bus loop through some of the most spectacular scenic vistas the Gorge has to offer. Maars, lahars, pillows, petroglyphs, even an exotic side trip, plus much more, will sharpen your vision and tickle your imagination. The Gorge in May can be warm or cool, dry or wet, calm or windy, and this 6-7 hour tour will involve several roadside off/on the bus stops and two short walks on paved paths, so dress appropriately with comfortable walking shoes. Important Notes: We’ll stop for lunch at a scenic overview picnic area. An optional box lunch may be ordered with your registration. The group size will be limited to ensure an engaging experience for all. If the available spaces fill up and there is sufficient waitlist interest, this field trip may be offered again on Sunday, May 4.
IAFI 2024 BRIEF YEAR-IN-REVIEW

This is a very short summary of our 2024 Year-in-Review report prepared for you, our members, who provide most of our support and much of the reason for the various materials, activities and events we provide. You can read the entire detailed report on our website. In 1996, we started with 11 members. At the end of 2024, we have 587 members in 20 US states, Canada and Germany. While we have over six hundred members, most of the work is done by a small number of people. All of your institute and chapter leaders are volunteers. We are always looking for people willing to work with us to help develop and conduct chapter programs. If you think you might be interested, please contact your chapter president or board members. All help is appreciated, both small and large. Our eleven local chapter’s lectures, field trips and hikes are possibly the most effective way we fulfill our mission to inform and educate the public about the Ice Age Floods and their long-lasting impact. IAFI projects at the Institute board level generally benefit more than one chapter or do work that all chapters might not be able to do by themselves. In 2024 we had 37 in-person lectures attended by over 1425 people with many more viewers on YouTube. In addition, our chapters conducted 22 field trips with 735 attendees and 7 hikes with 106 attendees. IAFI also shares resources and knowledge in collaborations and partnerships with over 30 other professional organizations, universities and state/federal agencies to present up-to-date information to our members and communities. IAFI is a non-profit organization supported by membership dues, donations, profit from field trips and store sales. Our funds are used for new and existing educational and informative materials and programs related to the Floods story, insurance, contract labor and to cover unplanned expenses. We appreciate your continued support, friendship and membership. Prepared January 4, 2025, by Gary Ford, IAFI President
Discovering the Telford Tract: A Hidden Gem in the Channeled Scablands

Traveling east along Lake Roosevelt from the Grand Coulee brings you closer to an area steeped in geological and historical intrigue. This journey not only unveils the legacy of ancient Glacial Lake Columbia but also leads to one of the most captivating sections of the Channeled Scablands: the Telford Tract. A critical player in the narrative of Ice Age floods, the Telford Tract offers a striking example of the power and scope of these ancient cataclysmic events. The Role of Glacial Lake Columbia The current Lake Roosevelt occupies much of the previous western Glacial Lake Columbia area, a massive lake formed when glacial ice blocked the Columbia River’s southwestward flow. The lake’s height and timing had a dramatic influence on the routes taken by the incoming Glacial Lake Missoula floodwaters. A portion of these immense floods, among the largest known in Earth’s history, surged south through the Telford region, carving canyons, depositing sediments, and shaping the land into what we now call the Channeled Scablands. J Harlen Bretz, the geologist who first described the scablands in detail, outlined these pathways or “tracts” in his seminal 1928 paper, The Channeled Scabland of Eastern Washington. Among the four major scabland tracts Bretz identified, the Telford-Crab Creek Tract is particularly significant for its geological features and historical context: “The Telford-Crab Creek scabland tract…heads in the vicinity of Telford station…as wide as the Cheney-Palouse River tract…convergence of all these (and of all but one of the Cheney-Palouse River divergences) occurs in a wide shallow structural sag (Quincy Basin) in the western part of the plateau. In this basin is the largest single area of gravel left by the glacial waters…There is continuous scabland northward from all channel heads of this tract across the plateau divide to the limits reached by the ice sheet.” Exploring the Telford Tract Today The Telford Tract, adjacent to the Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area, provides an unparalleled opportunity to witness the scars of Ice Age floods. Once a 900-acre homestead, the tract’s eroded flood channels and gravel deposits serve as a testament to the massive forces that shaped this region. Managed by the Bureau of Land Management, the Telford Recreation Area invites visitors to explore this geological marvel. Hiking trails weave through remnants of these ancient waterways, offering a chance to immerse yourself in one of the major routes of the Missoula Floodwaters. Check out these resources to help plan your visit: BLM Telford Recreation Area and Washington Trails Association: Telford Recreation Area Beyond Telford: Exploring Upper Crab Creek For those looking to expand their journey through this region, the Telford Tract’s channels eventually connect to Crab Creek, another iconic feature shaped by glacial waters. The Upper Crab Creek Field Trip offers a deeper dive into this fascinating landscape, combining geological exploration with breathtaking scenery. In 2013 Karl Lillquist and Jack Powell created an Upper Crab Creek Field Trip guide for the Ellensburg Chapter of the Ice Age Floods Institute. A Landscape Worth Protecting The Telford Tract exemplifies the dynamic history of the Channeled Scablands and the profound environmental changes brought about by Ice Age floods. As part of the Ice Age Floods National Geologic Trail, this area’s preservation ensures that future generations can continue to learn from and appreciate its unique geological story. Whether you are a geology enthusiast, history buff, or outdoor adventurer, the Telford Tract promises an unforgettable experience. This landscape, shaped by forces beyond imagination, stands as a humbling reminder of nature’s power and its enduring impact on the Earth’s surface.
Vineyard/Winery Field Trip – Journey Through Terroir

The Columbia Gorge is a true “World of Wine in Forty Miles” and this field trip is your chance to experience it firsthand. Unlock the secrets of the Columbia Gorge Wine Region as we explore and sample this World of Wine on a Journey Through Terroir! The Columbia Gorge is a singular wine region where dramatic landscapes and diverse microclimates create an incredible variety of delicious wines. You’ll visit stunning vineyards and sample award-winning wines as you delve into the fascinating science behind winemaking. Discover how everything from volcanic soils to extreme rainfall gradients shapes the flavors in your glass, exploring how geology, climate, and even wind influence the grapes. Imagine: Tasting wines grown in volcanic soils, alongside those nurtured by ancient flood sediments. Experiencing the dramatic shift from lush, forested landscapes to dry high-desert conditions, all within a short drive. Sampling a wide range of varietals, from cool-climate classics to sun-loving grapes, all thriving in this unique region. Important Notes: There will be ample opportunities to sample and purchase wine along the way, and there will be a no-host lunch at one of the wineries. The group size will be limited to ensure an engaging experience for all. Register today to embark on a sensory adventure! If the available spaces fill up and there is sufficient waitlist interest this field trip may be offered again on Sunday, May 4.
Spring Wildflower Walk at Tom McCall Preserve on the Rowena Plateau

Don’t miss this chance to immerse yourself in the beauty of spring wildflowers in the Gorge! Rowena Plateau is located in the transition zone between the moist, heavily-forested west side of the Cascades and the drier bunch grass prairies of the east. The main parking circle at Rowena Crest is a fabulous place to enjoy the sweeping views of the Columbia River. Barbara Robinson, a renowned native plants expert will lead a Wildflower Walk along the Plateau Trail, which features fantastic views of the Columbia River Gorge and the Lyle Sandbar at the mouth of the Klickitat River across the Columbia. Spring may be the best time of year to walk this easy trail as it meanders atop Rowena Plateau across grasslands full of arrowleaf balsamroot, lupine, bachelor’s button, other spectacular wildflowers.. Rowena Gap to the east was a significant choke point along the path of the Ice Age Floods which overtopped this 700-foot-high cliff by about 200 feet above the parking circle. The trail crosses an enigmatic mound-and-swale topography shaped by ancient lava flows, catastrophic floods and volcanic ash deposits. Earthquake sorting, freezing and thawing, erosion, soil accumulations by plants and wildlife burrowing activities have all been suggested as having caused the mounds. The trail also encounters two kolk ponds, depressions in the basalt created by the churning action of the Ice Age Floods. The depressions harbor moisture, and are the most vegetated places atop this arid bluff. Scrub oak groves interspersed along the way provide some welcome shade and protection from the prevailing seasonal wind. Notice how the oaks are almost reduced to krummholz (trees stunted by wind) near the top of the trail from the incessant winds. You might also enjoy watching the “Wildflower Woman” tribute to Barbara Robinson. Important Notes: This area can be quite windy, so dress appropriately and hold onto your hat. Poison oak is one of the plants that thrive here. There is no potable water available. Please stay on marked trails. Dogs are not allowed. The group size will be limited to ensure an engaging experience for all. If there is sufficient waitlist interest the guided walk may be offered again on Sunday, May 4.
Geologists predict an Undersea volcano off the Oregon coast could erupt this year

Scientists say Axial, an undersea volcano off the coast of Oregon is probably going to erupt in 2025. The volcano, known as Axial, is a seamount 300 miles (480 kilometers) west of Cannon Beach, Oregon. The Axial seamount erupts regularly — it rumbled to life in 1998, 2011 and 2015, according to a blog by scientists monitoring the seamount — and it doesn’t pose a threat to people. But because of the seamount’s regular activity and its relative proximity to land, researchers made it the site of the world’s first underwater volcano observatory, known as the New Millennium Observatory. Now, the monitors at Axial are showing that the surface of the seamount is inflating — a sign of moving magma that likely presages an eruption, William Chadwick, a geologist at Oregon State University who studies the volcano and its nearby hydrothermal vents, reported at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December 2024. The volcano’s surface has now risen to 95% of what it was before the 2015 eruption, Chadwick reported. The activity follows a period of quiet between 2015 to 2023, during which the seamount barely budged. The new rise began in the fall of 2023 and increased in January 2024, with the ground moving upward at a rate of about 10 inches (25 centimeters) per year as of mid-2024. This inflation was accompanied by swarms of hundreds of small earthquakes. Since then, the inflation rate has stabilized, Chadwick reported in his blog. “The rate of inflation at Axial has been steady for the last 6 months and the rate of seismicity has moderated,” he wrote. “An eruption does not seem imminent, but it can’t do this forever.” He and his co-author Scott Nooner, a geophysicist at the University of North Carolina Wilmington suspect that the volcano will erupt before the end of 2025. The scientists are hopeful that their prediction is correct, because the well-monitored Axial is a promising location to work out the patterns a volcano experiences before eruption. The fact that the volcano has recently erupted several times over two decades – rather than once in centuries, like many volcanoes – makes discerning patterns easier. Researchers are also more comfortable offering tentative predictions for a volcano that doesn’t threaten life or property, because there are no downsides to being wrong. Volcanologists can currently make accurate short-term predictions of eruptions, but according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, predictions are rarely reliable more than a few days in advance. Reprinted from Live Science News, article By Stephanie Pappas
Ancient ‘land bridge’ that connected Siberia to US wasn’t what it seems

The boggy landscape of the Bering land bridge may have allowed some ice age animals to cross easily, while others stayed in Asia. The Bering land bridge that spanned between Siberia and Alaska during the Ice Age was more of a Bering land bog, new research finds. The discovery could help explain why some animals, such as birds, easily crossed the land bridge, while others, like woolly rhinos (Coelodonta antiquitatis), didn’t make the migration. The land bridge, now submerged under the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia, was above water from about 36,000 years ago to 11,000 years ago. Scientists thought it might have looked a lot like the grassy, arid steppe landscape in Siberia and Alaska at the time — but no one had ever investigated the ocean floor where the “bridge” once stood. Last year, researchers led by University of Alaska Fairbanks geologist Sarah Fowell set out on the research vessel Sikuliaq to extract cores of sediment from the floor of the Bering Sea. It was the first attempt to reconstruct the ancient landscape and climate of the land bridge. The researchers presented their results today (Dec. 10) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in Washington, D.C. Instead of a grassy steppe, they found a marshy landscape crisscrossed by rivers and dotted with little lakes. “We were looking for several large lakes,” Fowell said. “What we actually found was evidence of lots of small lakes and river channels.” Lake sediments were apparent in the ocean floor cores, as were pollen, small fossils, ancient DNA and organic matter. The pollen and fossils revealed that the landscape hosted trees and mosses. The researchers also found egg cases from water fleas (Daphnia), a freshwater crustacean. This marshy environment may have been particularly welcoming for some species such as birds, but there were also spots where there was evidence of larger mammals making the migration. One site hosted mammoth DNA. Bison are also known to have crossed from Eurasia to North America during the time that the land bridge existed, and horses are known to have made it from North America to Eurasia. “Even if it was mostly floodplains and ponds, the grazers were around, just uphill following higher, drier areas,” Fowell said. However, the environment may have been less conducive for species that did not make the move between continents, such as the woolly rhino (a Eurasian native), American camel (native to north and central America), and the short-faced bear (native to North America). “The watery, wet landscape could have been a barrier for some species,” said Jenna Hill, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey who is also presenting research on the Bering Sea core data at the AGU meeting, “or a pathway for species that actually travel by water.” Further research will be needed to understand the full impact of the environment on migration. Republished from an article by Stephanie Pappas in Live Science
Explore Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area

The Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area serves as a striking landmark that narrates a dramatic geological history shaped by colossal natural forces. Greatly influenced by the Missoula Floods, this area, part of the Ice Age Floods National Geologic Trail, reveals not only stunning landscapes but also insights into the Earth’s geological story. Understanding this region offers a glimpse into the powerful events that occurred between 13,500 and 18,500 years ago, as well as the enduring environmental significance of these features. Lake Roosevelt and Grand Coulee Dam Lake Roosevelt, created by the Grand Coulee Dam in the 1930s, serves multiple purposes: from water storage and hydroelectric power generation to recreation and wildlife preservation. The lake provides a crucial habitat for various species and supports a vibrant ecosystem and is home to a range of fish species, including walleye, rainbow trout, and Kokanee salmon. The surrounding lands offer habitats for birds and other wildlife, contributing to ecological balance. With over 400 miles of scenic shoreline, the 150 mile long goes from Grand Coulee nearly to the Canadian board and is a haven for outdoor enthusiasts. The lake offers expansive waters perfect for various forms of boating. Anglers can enjoy abundant fishing opportunities year-round. 32 different campgrounds such as Spring Canyon close to Grand Coulee, WA offer numerous places to extend your overnight stays with these stunning landscapes. Historical Heritage The Lake Roosevelt area holds historical significance for the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation and the Spokane Tribe of Indians, highlighting the intertwined relationship between Native heritage and the natural landscape. The National Park Service (NPS) supports Bureau of Reclamation management of Bakes Lake, Coulee Dam, and Lake Roosevelt. NPS works with Washington State Parks throughout the Grand Coulee Corridor and along with the Tribes and Washington Department of Natural Resources, oversees recreation on the water and lands of Lake Roosevelt NRA. Our collective efforts work to ensure that these natural treasures are preserved for future generations. Visitors to the area can engage with a variety of programs and informational resources that enhance their understanding and respect for the environment. Power in Nature The Grand Coulee and Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area stand as remarkable examples of nature’s power and the intricate tapestry of geological history. From the cataclysmic Missoula Floods that sculpted the landscape to the thriving ecosystems supported by Lake Roosevelt, this region offers an unparalleled opportunity for exploration and discovery. Whether you are an avid hiker, a passionate angler, or a curious geology enthusiast, this area provides not only recreational activities but also a deeper connection to the Earth’s history. As we delve into the breathtaking scenery and rich cultural heritage of this national recreation area, we are reminded of the dynamic forces that shape our world. The Grand Coulee and Lake Roosevelt invite each visitor to engage with the past while understanding the importance of stewardship for future generations. This stunning landscape not only captivates the eye; it expands our knowledge of nature and our place within Ice Age Floods National Geologic Trail.